Post-Refinery Futures

National Context

In a Post-Carbon Economy, There Will Be More

In the US, oil refineries currently in operation occupy over 149,000 acres (232 sq mi) distributed across 134 facilities in 31 states.[1] Like the former Philadelphia refinery, many occupy strategic sites with waterfront, rail, and highway access, but also are over a century old, vulnerable to sea level rise, and have continued to expand in size and capacity as adjacent communities have grown around them. Given the specter of a third wave of refinery closures, we need a more systematic approach to the decommissioning and redevelopment of America's vast petrochemical footprint.

While refinery capacity in the US has continued to increase due to facility expansions, mergers, and increased processing efficiency, the actual number of operating refineries in the US has decreased significantly since its peak in 1936 when there were more than 630. Following this pre-WWI build-up of refineries, there was a period of consolidation that favored larger, more strategically located facilities, leading smaller, more isolated refineries to close throughout the 1940s and 1950s. Following the gradual implementation of the Clean Air Act, new refinery construction came to a halt and a second wave of closures began in the early 1980s and continued throughout the decade due to the market volatility caused by the world oil crisis.[2]

Whether developed, still being remediated, or left idle, the EPA is currently monitoring over 1,150 sites categorized as having had petroleum refining activities.[3] Further study of these sites might reveal lessons that could inform the remediation and redevelopment of the Philadelphia refinery site and other soon-to-be-closed refineries.

The Philadelphia Refinery is not the only major US refinery to close recently. Since 2020, 11 facilities have closed with additional major closures at the Convent, Louisiana, Martinez, California, and Cheyette, Wyoming refineries.[4] The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in their “Oil 2021 Analysis and forecast to 2026”

The Covid-19 demand shock, the continued capacity build-up and expectations of long-term structural demand decline have created a refining capacity overhang that can only be resolved through massive closures. We believe that a third round of worldwide refinery rationalisation is in the making.

Despite years of anticipation that the Philadelphia refinery might close, there had been little thought given to its decommissioning and redevelopment. Anticipating the closure of other refineries in the near future, we analyzed the Energy Information Agency (EIA’s) public data on oil refinery production to do a comparative analysis, overlaying the spatial footprint of these facilities relative to other infrastructural, environmental and demographic datasets. Below is a summary of our initial findings.

Oil Refinery Facility Characteristics

PES Refinery US Average US Min US Max US Total
Refinery Capacity (barrels per day) 310,000 132,558 0 603,000 17,762,726
Acreage 804 1,111 11 7,713 148,904
Jobs 830 479 22 1,849 57,436
Year Built 1866 1942 1881 2018

Infrastructural Assets

PES Refinery US Total With US Total Without US % With US % Without
Navigable Waterway Y 73 61 51 42
Rail Y 121 23 84 16
Highway Y 84 60 58 42
Hydrocarbon Pipeline N 45 99 31 69
Petroleum Pipeline Y 92 52 64 36
Crude Pipeline N 86 58 60 40

Climate Resilience

PES Refinery US Average US Min US Max
Mean Elevation (ft)* 4 274 1 2,289

*Mean elevation for refinery facility footprints calculated using USGS 30-Arc DEM.

Adjacent Populations

PES Refinery US Average US Min US Max US Total
Total Population within 1 mi.* 24,560 6,488 1 43,620 869,397
Total Population within 10 mi.* 1,451,921 303,046 27 2,254,755 40,608,207

*Population totals within a distance of refinery facility footprints were calculated using 2010 US Census data.

More Capacity with Fewer Refineries: Is the US Approaching a Third Wave of Refinery Closures?

“The COVID-19 demand shock, the continued capacity buildup, and expectations of long-term structural demand decline have created a refining capacity overhang that can only be resolved through massive closures. We believe that a third round of worldwide refinery rationalisation is in the making.”
-International Energy Agency (IEA), 2021

[1] Analysis based on US EIA, Petroleum Refineries shapefile, 2020

[2] Analysis of US Refinery closures and capacity after 1949 is based on US EIA, Table 5.9 Refinery Capacity and Utilization 1949-2011 Operable Refineries. Data before 1949 was extracted from US Bureau of Mine Information Circulars from 1934, 1951, and 1960.

[3] Analysis derived from a review of all US EPA FRS Sites with NAICS Code 324110 “petroleum refineries” and/or SIC Code 2911 “petroleum refining.”

[4] US EIA. Refineries Permanently Shutdown By PAD District Between January 1, 1991 and January 1, 2021, Table 13.